How do you measure forecast credibility?
Coverage (P90/P95), interval width, extreme weather robustness and back-testing performance.
Spot playfield
Everyone in spot needs predictability
Generators, buyers, retailers, aggregators, regions and grids act on the same market signals.
01
Sellers (generation / VPP)
Scenario → engineering → delivery → KPI, presented in one executable loop.
Scenario3 KPIs
Renewables portfolios
Align volume/price offers and maximise clearing efficiency amid load–price coupling.
Challenge
Net load uncertainty, renewable intermittency, caps and deviation penalties shape bidding strategy.
What we deliver
Scenario-driven offers across day-ahead/intraday/real-time, dispatch guidance and maintenance timing.
KPI
Hit-rate ↑｜Curtailment ↓｜Drawdown ↓
Scenario2 KPIs
Flexible generation & storage
Charge low, discharge high, coordinate ancillary service revenue.
Challenge
Capacity limits, degradation cost, service switching conflicts.
What we deliver
Spread heat maps, life-friendly dispatch paths, switching windows and priorities.
KPI
Revenue per cycle ↑｜Equivalent cycles ↓
Scenario3 KPIs
VPP aggregation
Merge distributed uncertainty into deliverable fulfilment curves.
Challenge
Heterogeneous assets, fulfilment bands, volatility and penalty exposure.
What we deliver
Net-load and price forecasts, fulfilment curves with tolerance bands, rolling intraday updates.
KPI
Fulfilment ↑｜Volatility ↓｜Penalty cost ↓
02
Buyers (C&I / campuses / data centers)
Scenario → engineering → delivery → KPI, presented in one executable loop.
Scenario2 KPIs
Procurement pacing & spreads
Use forward-looking prices to pace procurement.
Challenge
Extreme spreads, surprises, unclear hedging frameworks.
What we deliver
Mix of long-term vs. spot, top-up & hedge plan, cost interval.
KPI
Average cost ↓｜Cost volatility ↓
Scenario2 KPIs
Demand charge management
Align actions with demand-charge windows.
Challenge
Peak shifts, shoulder-to-peak spans, simple time-of-use cuts miss the billed peak.
What we deliver
Window probability cone, multi-peak allocation, trigger thresholds and guard bands.
KPI
Demand charge ↓｜Missed window ↓
Scenario2 KPIs
Flexible load scheduling
Shift load without breaking comfort or process constraints.
Challenge
Process rigidity, comfort/temperature limits, mismatch with price windows.
What we deliver
Shiftable load plan and scheduling templates within constraints.
KPI
Average cost ↓｜Peak-valley delta ↓
03
Retail & aggregation
Scenario → engineering → delivery → KPI, presented in one executable loop.
Scenario2 KPIs
Portfolio buy/sell & pricing
Design fixed/indexed/tiered pricing and hedging structures.
Challenge
Customer behaviour uncertainty, spot exposure, margin drawdown.
What we deliver
Portfolio procurement/hedging mix, contract parameters, profit stabilisers (VaR/CVaR).
KPI
Margin volatility ↓｜Customer retention ↑
Scenario2 KPIs
Fulfilment & reconciliation
Turn forecasts into settlement-grade curves and bids.
Challenge
Multiple rulebooks across provinces and reporting views.
What we deliver
Fulfilment curves with tolerance bands, multi-rule reconciliations, exception playbooks.
KPI
Fulfilment ↑｜Failed trades ↓
04
Regions & grids
Scenario → engineering → delivery → KPI, presented in one executable loop.
Scenario3 KPIs
Congestion windows & risk
Forecast constraints to prioritise local actions and defer capex.
Challenge
Topology shifts, maintenance impact, sudden flow changes.
What we deliver
Constraint risk curves, local dispatch plan including controllable resources.
KPI
Congestion duration ↓｜Peak loading ↓｜Capex deferral ↑
FAQ
How do you align with price caps, deviations and settlement rules?
Rule adapters encode caps, deviation penalties, settlement windows and local adjustments into optimisation constraints.
What if data is limited or newly onboarded?
Hybrid modelling blends historical proxies, physics-informed signals and transfer learning to cold-start new assets.
How do you integrate with EMS/AGC/market systems?
Native connectors cover market submissions, EMS/AGC dispatch and reconciliation exports.